Ex-defence minister Ishiba set to become Japan’s next PM

Veteran lawmaker Shigeru Ishiba was set on Friday to become Japan’s next prime minister after winning a closely fought contest in his fifth and final attempt to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Ishiba prevailed over hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi in a run-off vote in what was seen as one of the most unpredictable leadership elections in decades with a record nine candidates in the field.

The leader of the LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era, is essentially assured of becoming Japan’s premier because of its majority in parliament.

The scramble to replace current premier Fumio Kishida was sparked in August when he announced his intention to step down over a series of scandals that plunged the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) ratings to record lows.

Ishiba must quell anger at home over rising living costs and navigate a volatile security environment in East Asia fuelled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea.

In brief comments made to lawmakers before the run-off, Ishiba called for a fairer and kinder Japan and tears welled in his eyes after the final results were read out.

Ishiba has courted controversy with his peers for going against the grain and challenging previous leaders, and has failed in four previous leadership bids. He has said he will not run again after this contest.

He supports some socially progressive policies like changing the law to allow married couples to use separate surnames, a move opposed by Takaichi and other more conservative LDP lawmakers.

US diplomacy

Seen as an LDP intellectual heavyweight and expert on national security policy, he advocates for a more assertive Japan that can reduce its reliance on longtime ally, the US, for its defence. That position, analysts say, could complicate relations with Washington.

During the LDP leadership campaign, he called for Japan to lead the creation of an “Asian NATO”, an idea quickly rejected by Washington as too hasty.

In Okinawa where most of the US troops in Japan are concentrated, he said he would seek greater oversight of the bases they use. He also wants Washington to give Japan a say in how it would use nuclear weapons in Asia.

In an interview with Reuters, Ishiba also criticised the US political backlash to Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel, saying it unfairly cast Japan as a national security risk. Kishida has avoided making comments on the issue ahead of the US presidential election.

Policy shifts

Ishiba has, however, softened some policy positions that have put him at odds with party colleagues, most notably saying he would keep some reactors operating in Japan, despite his past opposition to nuclear power and support for renewable energy sources.

A fiscal conservative who has promised to respect the independence of the Bank of Japan to set monetary policy, he has more recently said it is unclear whether conditions were right for a fresh hike in interest rates.

“Politicians don’t need to be best friends, as long as their policies and political positions match,” Ishiba said in a video posted on YouTube this week.