The cause of Friday’s accident is yet to be determined, but it occurred amid intense international attention at the event, attended by India’s rival Pakistan, just six months after a historic air battle between the two nations. Wing Commander Namansh Syal tragically lost his life in the incident.
Experts say the crash at such a high-profile event will overshadow India’s decades-long effort to promote the Tejas abroad.
Douglas A. Birkey, executive director of the U.S.-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, called the incident “brutal imagery” that sends a message of failure, though he added that the program could regain momentum.
The Tejas program, launched in the 1980s to replace aging MiG-21s, has faced production delays, with 180 Mk-1A variants on order for domestic use but yet to be delivered due to engine supply chain issues with GE Aerospace.
Exports had been targeted to markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, including a HAL office in Malaysia opened in 2023. A former HAL executive suggested the crash “rules out exports for now.”
Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force faces shrinking fighter squadrons, currently at 29 from an approved strength of 42.
Retiring aircraft include early MiG-29s, Jaguars, and Mirage 2000s.
Tejas was intended as a replacement, but production delays have prompted India to explore off-the-shelf purchases, including additional Rafales, as well as offers for U.S. F-35s and Russian Su-57s.
The Dubai Airshow, the world’s third-largest, has seen rare but notable accidents in the past, such as Russian Sukhoi Su-30 and MiG-29 crashes at the Paris Airshow, which did not ultimately halt sales.
Still, the Tejas crash is a public and symbolic blow to India’s ambitions to market the fighter internationally.
‘BASE’ FOR FUTURE PROGRAMMES
India has for years been among the world’s biggest arms importers, but has increasingly projected the Tejas as an example of self-reliance with Prime Minister Narendra Modi taking a sortie in the fighter in November 2023.
Like most fighter programmes, the Tejas has fought for attention at the intersection of technology and diplomacy.
Development was initially held up partly by sanctions following India’s 1998 nuclear tests as well as problems in developing local engines, said Walter Ladwig, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
But the jet’s long-term significance is “likely to lie less in sales abroad than in the industrial and technological base it creates for India’s future combat-aircraft programmes,” he said.
REGIONAL RIVALRY PLAYS OUT
Both India and Pakistan were present in force at the show, where the Tejas performed multiple aerial displays in the presence of the rival Pakistani contingent.
Pakistan disclosed the signing of a provisional agreement with a “friendly country” to supply its JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter, co-developed with China.
On the ramp, a JF-17 was flanked by arms including PL-15E, the export variant of a family of Chinese missiles that U.S. and Indian officials say brought down at least one French Rafale used by India during an aerial battle with Pakistan in May.
At an exhibition stand, manufacturer PAC distributed brochures touting the JF-17, one of two models deployed by Pakistan during the four-day conflict, as “battle-tested”.
India is a lot more careful with the Tejas, which was not actively used in the four-day conflict in May, Indian officials have said, without giving any reasons.
Nor did it participate in the annual January 26 Republic Day aerial display in New Delhi this year due to what officials said were safety reasons associated with single-engine aircraft.
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